* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 06/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 38 40 34 33 27 25 25 24 22 23 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 26 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 34 37 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 31 22 19 23 11 10 20 30 25 25 23 5 3 15 16 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -9 -3 0 -9 -2 0 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 234 248 254 234 251 249 288 329 333 342 339 360 351 354 282 301 303 SST (C) 24.7 24.0 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.2 24.0 24.6 20.6 17.4 13.7 9.0 9.7 4.9 POT. INT. (KT) 103 98 99 102 106 109 107 107 105 96 99 80 73 69 67 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 86 86 87 90 91 87 87 86 80 81 71 67 66 66 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.4 -56.9 -57.1 -56.9 -57.1 -56.7 -56.8 -57.2 -57.2 -57.5 -57.4 -57.4 -57.4 -57.2 -57.6 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 2 3 0 6 1 6 2 6 2 5 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 48 47 50 47 54 57 56 61 62 64 65 63 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 10 7 7 5 6 3 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 28 3 -37 -49 -70 -38 -10 -34 -27 -6 -2 39 9 -13 -10 200 MB DIV 10 23 6 -7 10 -4 -5 -3 3 -23 32 -9 37 13 15 16 1 700-850 TADV 26 17 10 10 10 4 4 -5 8 0 0 7 14 2 57 65 55 LAND (KM) 41 -46 -102 -209 -305 -547 -687 -702 -582 -441 -317 -261 -303 -232 -101 28 51 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.2 36.3 37.3 38.2 39.6 40.8 41.7 42.1 41.9 41.7 42.2 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.4 77.4 77.7 78.3 79.2 81.5 82.7 82.5 80.9 79.2 77.7 76.4 74.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 5 5 7 6 4 8 11 17 20 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -18. -18. -21. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 13. 15. 9. 8. 2. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.0 77.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 06/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.5% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 06/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 06/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 26 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 29 29 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT