* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 06/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 36 36 36 33 32 28 24 21 19 18 15 16 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 28 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 22 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 38 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 32 24 26 20 13 20 21 24 23 26 10 14 16 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -6 -8 -1 -6 -5 1 -1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 232 234 249 247 251 274 241 307 322 337 338 340 356 322 275 299 291 SST (C) 27.9 27.0 25.4 23.9 23.5 25.3 25.4 24.7 24.5 21.5 18.4 17.3 16.8 12.8 10.3 7.0 4.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 124 109 98 95 108 108 101 100 83 72 71 72 69 68 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 105 94 86 84 92 90 83 82 71 65 65 67 66 67 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -56.5 -56.7 -57.0 -57.0 -56.7 -56.7 -57.3 -57.7 -57.7 -57.7 -57.4 -57.3 -57.7 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 2 0 4 0 5 1 5 0 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 53 51 49 50 47 50 52 57 60 61 63 59 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 11 8 6 6 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 41 32 35 28 -24 -62 -59 -40 -41 -55 -57 -71 -39 19 18 -28 200 MB DIV 23 26 25 6 -7 12 -7 2 -44 -2 6 -27 13 11 13 2 -11 700-850 TADV 18 19 15 9 12 7 6 0 10 -8 9 0 0 13 54 30 57 LAND (KM) 182 130 78 -16 -87 -223 -422 -523 -521 -463 -405 -360 -300 -187 31 -26 254 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.9 33.9 35.1 36.3 38.5 40.5 42.0 43.2 43.6 43.8 44.2 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.3 77.0 76.8 76.9 78.0 79.5 80.2 79.4 78.0 76.3 74.9 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 12 10 6 6 6 5 7 12 18 22 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 28 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -6. -11. -16. -21. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -17. -17. -18. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 8. 7. 3. -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.1 77.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 06/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 06/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 06/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 28 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 28 32 18HR AGO 25 24 27 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 25 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 19 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 24 19 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT