* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 06/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 41 41 40 39 37 37 31 29 24 23 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 35 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 38 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 45 44 36 30 28 13 15 15 23 23 16 15 4 20 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 -1 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -8 -4 -2 -4 5 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 245 235 242 251 255 258 271 285 339 337 347 2 20 185 191 257 284 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.0 23.2 24.6 25.5 25.5 24.8 24.1 24.6 22.3 17.7 15.2 5.5 6.2 5.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 121 106 94 102 109 108 101 95 99 86 75 73 68 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 109 104 92 83 88 92 88 81 78 80 73 69 69 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -56.0 -56.6 -56.6 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -57.3 -57.3 -57.5 -57.1 -56.8 -56.6 -56.7 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 0 0 3 0 5 1 6 2 6 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 54 53 47 50 47 49 53 53 59 58 58 57 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 10 8 7 6 7 4 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 54 48 33 35 -14 -48 -79 -31 -19 -37 -16 28 4 10 22 21 200 MB DIV 14 25 17 28 4 -1 7 -2 -23 9 -27 19 -8 20 10 22 10 700-850 TADV 7 18 12 14 10 7 5 3 -4 6 0 -6 4 13 -32 17 67 LAND (KM) 218 188 146 32 -32 -150 -371 -521 -561 -509 -463 -440 -526 -411 -161 -125 459 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.4 33.3 34.5 35.7 38.0 39.8 41.2 42.2 42.6 42.8 43.3 45.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.1 76.6 76.4 76.5 77.4 79.2 80.4 80.6 79.7 78.9 78.0 76.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 11 11 7 4 3 4 6 15 22 27 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 30 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 7. 1. -1. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 77.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 06/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 06/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 06/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 35 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 31 26 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 24 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT