* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 06/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 40 38 35 34 30 28 23 18 18 18 17 15 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 36 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 31 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 38 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 47 45 44 36 30 21 11 17 19 24 17 19 5 7 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 -4 -1 -2 -3 -3 -7 -7 -4 -6 -2 3 11 4 10 SHEAR DIR 246 243 235 244 252 254 273 235 325 326 341 4 344 360 245 252 297 SST (C) 27.6 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.3 21.4 25.1 24.5 24.0 24.7 22.1 18.7 17.0 14.9 5.4 5.0 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 123 121 118 118 85 107 101 96 100 84 73 72 72 68 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 105 102 102 76 91 85 80 81 71 65 67 68 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.9 -56.7 -56.8 -56.7 -56.4 -56.6 -57.2 -57.5 -57.5 -57.4 -57.1 -56.9 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 2 0 4 0 5 1 5 0 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 58 59 56 55 48 48 49 46 49 50 53 61 62 62 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 50 49 36 21 -38 -60 -55 -37 -36 -51 -23 -17 23 19 6 200 MB DIV 17 17 33 21 33 -14 6 -8 12 -38 -11 -3 -14 5 -2 8 0 700-850 TADV 10 6 16 10 13 11 7 3 3 7 -6 8 0 24 8 76 18 LAND (KM) 246 262 241 192 89 -2 -203 -412 -512 -540 -507 -496 -524 -409 -161 -134 473 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.3 32.1 33.1 34.3 37.0 39.1 41.1 42.5 43.5 43.8 44.3 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.4 77.5 76.6 76.0 75.7 76.0 77.4 79.1 79.8 79.4 78.5 77.4 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 13 12 13 9 7 4 4 5 12 21 27 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 19 8 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -8. -13. -16. -21. -24. -27. -28. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 5. 4. 0. -2. -7. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.9 78.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 06/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 06/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 06/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 36 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 32 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 26 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT