* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 10/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 21 20 22 24 27 31 33 36 39 42 46 48 51 54 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 21 20 22 24 27 31 33 36 39 42 46 48 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 16 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 25 20 20 18 18 14 14 19 15 15 14 12 13 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 4 2 1 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 305 324 338 332 328 320 311 315 318 314 311 271 291 305 313 320 299 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 151 149 149 149 147 146 144 139 139 138 136 134 132 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 145 143 139 136 135 135 136 135 129 128 126 124 120 117 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 73 73 67 75 72 73 69 69 66 67 64 56 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -35 -33 -28 -37 -46 -42 -26 -6 -15 -26 -42 -30 -10 12 17 10 200 MB DIV 18 26 54 27 4 20 38 40 39 38 15 9 -1 -12 -4 12 -32 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -4 -3 -2 3 4 11 11 16 11 7 6 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 407 434 493 467 391 287 270 348 518 720 941 1130 1224 1321 1394 1431 1449 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.1 17.1 17.8 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.8 61.6 62.3 62.8 63.3 63.2 62.4 60.8 58.9 56.8 55.0 53.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 7 7 4 4 6 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 36 42 45 55 57 46 40 43 46 36 40 45 41 38 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -3. -1. 2. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 21. 23. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 59.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 10/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 2.0% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 2.3% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 10/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 10/12/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 21 21 20 22 24 27 31 33 36 39 42 46 48 51 54 18HR AGO 25 24 22 22 21 23 25 28 32 34 37 40 43 47 49 52 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 22 24 27 31 33 36 39 42 46 48 51 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT