* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 24 16 16 13 33 43 50 56 56 52 43 38 38 48 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -5 -3 0 -4 -6 -5 1 -3 4 0 1 -1 2 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 254 310 317 321 298 259 258 268 263 274 279 278 266 248 243 228 228 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.8 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.1 28.0 26.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 127 133 123 121 124 125 135 122 128 136 142 142 127 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 99 102 107 101 101 105 109 119 110 117 126 136 138 125 111 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 53 49 47 41 38 38 41 49 53 54 54 56 61 62 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 1 -13 -22 -40 -64 -71 -73 -32 0 10 -11 -7 26 52 75 95 200 MB DIV 8 0 0 -2 12 -13 -23 9 4 -24 -23 31 4 64 99 87 59 700-850 TADV 4 0 2 4 0 0 -5 -11 -4 -4 1 0 6 9 16 12 -13 LAND (KM) 96 90 93 115 138 237 399 608 872 1146 1219 1227 1387 1719 2188 2119 1982 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.4 34.6 34.7 34.8 35.1 35.0 34.2 32.6 30.6 28.9 27.6 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.7 75.6 75.4 75.1 74.6 73.2 71.4 69.3 67.0 65.0 62.2 59.2 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 5 7 8 11 13 13 15 15 16 21 25 30 36 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 39 46 52 18 8 8 10 15 4 9 13 23 25 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -1. -9. -18. -29. -37. -43. -49. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -12. -21. -26. -29. -32. -33. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.2 75.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 6.2% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/11/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 31 32 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 28 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT