* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 30 31 32 30 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 30 31 32 30 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 23 23 19 19 23 41 50 68 64 64 53 42 48 47 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -6 -3 0 0 -3 -6 -3 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -3 6 8 SHEAR DIR 247 273 303 313 326 300 248 272 271 271 275 271 263 256 248 259 250 SST (C) 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.9 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.8 26.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 25.5 24.1 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 121 117 120 130 124 123 123 122 124 120 128 127 128 115 105 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 97 95 97 106 102 103 105 107 111 110 118 119 121 108 100 87 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -55.9 -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -56.4 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 60 56 52 47 45 36 38 39 48 54 64 67 64 65 64 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 13 0 -17 -14 -63 -61 -74 -45 -12 2 7 2 1 9 -18 -37 200 MB DIV 45 9 5 -6 -5 -23 10 -17 24 16 23 18 64 105 61 44 29 700-850 TADV 6 0 0 0 9 4 -3 -6 2 -1 14 20 19 17 -19 -17 -19 LAND (KM) 89 68 72 95 124 236 404 613 903 1248 1506 1721 1834 1876 1962 2061 1425 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.5 34.7 34.8 34.8 34.9 34.8 34.3 33.3 31.7 30.6 30.1 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.8 75.8 75.6 75.3 74.8 73.3 71.4 69.2 66.3 63.1 59.3 54.7 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 5 7 9 11 15 16 19 20 22 25 27 32 35 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 23 33 51 17 9 7 5 14 2 13 4 10 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -0. -8. -19. -31. -41. -49. -58. -63. -68. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 0. -5. -14. -24. -30. -35. -40. -44. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.2 75.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 7.7% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/10/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 30 31 32 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 30 31 32 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 29 30 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 23 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT