* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 32 32 30 27 26 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 32 32 30 27 26 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 31 31 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 11 20 26 25 18 20 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -8 -6 -4 0 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 266 282 305 314 301 273 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.4 27.3 26.6 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 123 118 115 126 119 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 101 100 97 95 102 98 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.3 -55.9 -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 56 52 49 42 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 12 -12 -29 -45 -71 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 39 9 3 -19 9 -28 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 4 0 0 0 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 118 92 69 74 83 157 283 481 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 5 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 26 22 23 26 32 20 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.8 76.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 8.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/10/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 32 32 30 27 26 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 23 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 31 31 29 26 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 20 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 28 28 26 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 17 17 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 23 21 18 17 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT