* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 39 38 35 34 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 39 38 35 34 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 40 38 35 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 19 10 20 24 23 18 18 38 40 49 45 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -3 -6 -6 -6 0 0 -3 2 0 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 218 266 281 307 331 300 255 280 282 286 300 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.7 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.8 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 130 121 112 108 127 121 118 116 121 122 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 105 98 91 88 103 100 97 96 102 105 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.4 -56.2 -55.9 -55.6 -55.3 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 55 52 48 39 37 35 36 34 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 13 12 9 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 18 5 -17 -40 -64 -66 -79 -56 -41 -16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 43 25 13 -12 -23 -11 -18 -4 -10 -31 -37 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 3 0 0 6 3 2 -2 -9 -8 -13 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 145 109 75 55 47 48 130 274 463 610 723 901 1161 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 8 7 6 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 39 33 26 10 5 29 14 10 2 8 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -28. -33. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -24. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -14. -21. -26. -29. -30. -31. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.6 75.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 9.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/10/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 39 38 35 34 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 37 36 33 32 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 34 33 30 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 27 24 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT