* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 46 42 38 38 36 35 35 35 34 35 36 38 39 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 47 46 42 38 38 36 35 35 35 34 35 36 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 45 44 43 44 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 27 17 6 10 27 17 12 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -7 -2 -2 -7 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 202 221 275 304 340 322 272 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.3 27.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 132 125 118 115 113 130 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 105 100 95 93 92 108 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.4 -56.4 -56.2 -55.7 -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 4 3 1 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 56 52 47 42 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 17 15 13 10 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 21 23 20 17 -44 -58 -68 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 8 35 33 3 -15 4 -21 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 9 5 1 3 0 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 133 97 79 64 42 18 95 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 1 2 3 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 38 31 18 10 7 5 47 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.5 75.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 14.4% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/10/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 47 46 42 38 38 36 35 35 35 34 35 36 38 39 18HR AGO 40 39 42 43 42 38 34 34 32 31 31 31 30 31 32 34 35 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 32 28 28 26 25 25 25 24 25 26 28 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 25 21 21 19 18 18 18 17 18 19 21 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT