* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 44 45 45 41 39 38 35 32 31 31 31 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 44 45 45 41 39 31 29 31 30 30 30 30 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 36 37 36 35 35 30 28 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 32 31 22 7 20 28 13 14 19 27 10 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 0 -6 -4 -7 -2 1 0 8 1 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 213 203 215 278 327 343 310 307 315 328 340 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.3 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 135 129 121 115 111 109 104 106 111 112 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 109 112 106 98 93 90 89 85 87 91 91 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.3 -56.3 -56.5 -56.4 -55.7 -55.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -55.2 -55.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 62 60 50 42 40 38 31 26 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 16 17 15 11 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 44 42 25 22 13 -47 -47 -34 -42 -90 -102 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 58 26 15 48 2 -18 0 -3 -24 -59 -47 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 13 5 9 6 0 0 0 1 -2 -6 -6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 328 254 182 128 74 45 22 10 -53 -35 25 38 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 3 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 23 28 18 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -10. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 15. 15. 11. 9. 8. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.1 75.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.6% 5.7% 5.2% 3.2% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/09/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 44 45 45 41 39 31 29 31 30 30 30 30 31 31 18HR AGO 30 29 35 39 40 40 36 34 26 24 26 25 25 25 25 26 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 31 31 27 25 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT