* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 41 44 41 37 35 36 36 32 27 26 25 25 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 41 44 41 37 35 36 36 32 27 26 25 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 28 27 28 30 33 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 36 28 28 28 12 26 21 7 8 21 37 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -1 -3 -3 -12 0 0 -3 0 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 258 248 218 219 310 342 339 306 259 287 306 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.9 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.4 27.9 27.8 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 128 133 134 118 112 111 115 133 133 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 101 105 111 110 96 91 90 94 108 109 101 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.7 -56.8 -56.6 -56.6 -56.7 -55.9 -55.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 1 3 2 4 3 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 62 62 60 51 46 45 41 39 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 10 14 12 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 37 46 41 20 11 -53 -66 -92 -91 -63 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 14 37 57 5 40 12 -7 -3 10 -23 -12 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 8 6 9 8 6 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -11 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 331 317 304 240 167 53 32 36 38 77 181 329 484 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 7 6 3 2 2 4 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 22 28 26 5 1 0 3 51 40 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -21. -25. -28. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 5. 4. -1. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 16. 12. 10. 11. 11. 7. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.2 74.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/09/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 36 41 44 41 37 35 36 36 32 27 26 25 25 27 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 38 41 38 34 32 33 33 29 24 23 22 22 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 34 31 27 25 26 26 22 17 16 15 15 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT