* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 38 46 46 41 37 35 35 35 32 32 31 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 38 46 46 37 37 35 35 34 32 31 31 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 26 29 28 30 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 39 36 28 26 19 25 33 14 7 15 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -4 -4 -2 -6 -4 -3 0 -5 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 258 262 249 232 237 332 342 346 247 243 291 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 26.5 25.7 26.6 26.8 27.5 27.4 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 121 127 131 133 116 106 116 120 129 128 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 99 105 108 109 95 86 94 99 106 106 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.1 -57.1 -57.3 -57.0 -56.9 -56.6 -55.5 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 4 2 4 2 5 4 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 61 63 62 56 46 40 36 35 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 14 11 7 5 4 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -6 4 34 46 4 -2 -47 -58 -105 -72 -69 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 27 30 43 40 7 15 22 -15 0 0 -27 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 5 6 9 7 2 -1 0 -4 -3 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 346 362 380 319 259 134 56 -10 46 62 75 211 408 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 2 6 6 5 4 1 2 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 10 18 26 28 3 0 3 8 50 33 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -3. -8. -10. -13. -16. -22. -26. -29. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 3. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 21. 22. 16. 12. 10. 10. 10. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.0 74.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/08/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 35 38 46 46 37 37 35 35 34 32 31 31 30 31 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 35 43 43 34 34 32 32 31 29 28 28 27 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 29 37 37 28 28 26 26 25 23 22 22 21 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 26 17 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT