* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/08/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 51 50 46 40 33 30 24 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 51 50 46 40 33 30 24 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 31 31 31 30 30 30 29 26 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 35 37 36 30 33 28 37 34 32 31 39 48 50 56 49 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -6 -5 0 0 -4 -6 -5 -11 -9 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 270 273 263 260 235 262 278 297 284 296 289 286 287 296 292 287 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.7 27.0 26.3 26.4 25.6 25.5 26.1 27.0 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 124 125 124 122 123 120 124 116 118 111 110 116 126 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 104 104 103 103 104 100 102 97 99 95 96 102 111 119 119 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.2 -57.4 -57.3 -57.7 -57.4 -58.0 -57.4 -57.2 -56.8 -56.9 -56.1 -55.6 -55.1 -55.0 -55.9 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 1 2 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 60 63 63 62 63 64 62 57 51 52 52 52 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 12 13 11 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -24 -10 5 34 35 -9 -46 -54 -41 -15 -10 -5 0 19 32 30 200 MB DIV 8 36 35 0 35 42 32 35 25 20 4 -43 -34 -27 -48 0 13 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 1 2 2 12 16 15 7 4 -7 -6 -15 -10 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 369 417 472 502 510 479 364 397 434 492 664 886 1114 1375 1648 1771 1918 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.6 31.4 31.4 31.7 32.8 34.7 36.6 37.6 37.8 37.1 35.8 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 74.1 73.4 72.9 72.4 71.8 71.9 71.2 69.5 67.2 65.0 62.8 60.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 5 5 5 8 10 9 8 9 10 11 12 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 9 10 10 8 5 8 22 16 7 8 0 0 0 5 30 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -6. -14. -20. -28. -33. -41. -51. -59. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 25. 21. 15. 8. 5. -1. -9. -15. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.7 75.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/08/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 45 51 50 46 40 33 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 42 48 47 43 37 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 42 41 37 31 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 33 32 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT