* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 43 50 49 45 40 35 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 43 50 49 45 40 35 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 34 32 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 41 39 37 37 26 27 26 28 21 24 24 49 46 64 52 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -7 -3 -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 -2 -2 -4 -10 -5 -12 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 280 278 265 264 257 233 240 274 300 300 281 274 281 286 295 300 306 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.5 25.6 27.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 130 126 123 123 126 125 119 118 117 117 116 110 111 126 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 109 106 103 103 105 104 98 98 97 98 98 97 98 112 122 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.6 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -57.2 -57.5 -57.4 -56.9 -56.1 -56.0 -55.8 -55.2 -55.2 -54.6 -55.4 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 5 6 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 61 62 66 66 63 64 60 53 48 44 47 49 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 5 5 6 9 13 13 10 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -50 -26 -11 0 40 21 -24 -60 -47 -42 -29 -31 -19 -2 17 25 200 MB DIV 15 23 39 37 26 58 23 28 33 47 4 -22 -15 -35 -25 -24 3 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 -1 4 9 10 12 11 2 8 0 3 -3 -4 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 240 279 333 391 423 412 329 243 330 454 598 737 935 1168 1410 1602 1682 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.7 31.5 31.4 31.4 32.1 33.5 35.2 36.2 36.7 36.4 35.7 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 76.6 75.9 75.1 74.4 73.4 73.2 73.1 72.1 70.4 68.4 66.3 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 6 8 7 6 8 8 10 10 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 41 33 25 18 12 8 11 19 24 11 6 4 1 0 0 7 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 1. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -34. -43. -52. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 18. 25. 24. 20. 15. 10. 8. 2. -5. -13. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.8 77.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/08/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 37 43 50 49 45 40 35 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 40 47 46 42 37 32 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 39 35 30 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT