* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 40 46 48 41 33 26 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 40 46 48 41 33 26 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 24 26 28 28 27 26 26 28 29 30 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 48 43 41 42 33 33 24 31 26 18 11 29 33 40 44 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -7 -6 -7 -5 -5 -1 -7 -6 -2 0 -1 1 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 269 279 277 265 266 254 227 261 304 330 302 247 260 287 300 309 289 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.3 27.8 26.2 24.9 24.4 24.5 24.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 138 131 127 123 126 133 112 100 97 100 100 119 119 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 115 109 105 101 105 110 91 82 81 84 85 100 101 100 99 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.4 -56.8 -56.9 -57.0 -57.3 -57.5 -57.9 -57.0 -56.5 -55.7 -55.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 3 2 3 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 61 60 63 61 60 60 55 49 47 44 49 52 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 7 12 13 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -69 -48 -27 -13 21 26 -5 -48 -68 -67 -68 -81 -50 -10 27 23 200 MB DIV 56 24 29 36 38 27 41 13 -6 7 7 -9 -5 -9 -19 -86 -63 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 -2 0 2 10 1 0 0 0 3 -3 -3 -11 -20 LAND (KM) 176 198 249 302 342 364 312 175 112 108 136 157 270 410 608 887 1168 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.0 32.3 33.4 34.8 35.9 36.2 36.7 37.5 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.1 76.3 75.6 74.9 73.9 73.5 74.1 74.5 74.6 74.4 73.7 71.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 7 8 3 2 3 7 9 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 33 23 18 9 13 42 8 0 0 0 0 7 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 0. -8. -15. -22. -26. -27. -31. -38. -44. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 9. 4. -1. -5. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 21. 23. 16. 8. 1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.2 77.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/08/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 35 40 46 48 41 33 26 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 37 43 45 38 30 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 32 38 40 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 30 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT