* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 35 37 40 45 47 38 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 35 37 40 45 47 38 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 25 24 25 29 32 31 28 26 26 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 39 45 48 43 40 35 34 26 36 31 25 24 32 31 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -6 -6 -5 -7 -5 -1 -7 -4 0 2 2 5 6 1 SHEAR DIR 267 260 266 276 272 262 262 244 278 309 329 296 273 274 300 320 337 SST (C) 28.2 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.9 25.2 23.5 22.6 21.6 20.6 17.7 21.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 129 130 135 139 133 130 129 133 103 91 88 85 83 75 84 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 108 108 112 115 109 105 105 108 84 76 75 76 74 70 75 75 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.9 -57.3 -57.7 -57.6 -57.9 -57.0 -56.7 -56.1 -54.9 -53.9 -53.0 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 3 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 60 61 60 62 59 57 58 54 47 45 46 51 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 4 7 11 14 10 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -68 -69 -74 -51 -22 8 -6 -29 -65 -96 -101 -75 -66 -27 -26 -33 200 MB DIV 7 68 54 32 25 20 19 -6 4 -19 23 -13 21 1 12 9 -21 700-850 TADV 8 7 2 2 -2 -2 -3 -1 4 1 0 7 0 17 3 10 18 LAND (KM) 117 67 89 103 160 226 266 225 114 76 57 75 65 85 189 250 389 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.7 33.1 33.2 33.2 33.1 33.3 34.1 35.2 35.9 36.3 37.1 38.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.1 78.8 78.1 77.3 76.5 75.1 74.2 74.1 74.6 74.9 75.2 75.1 74.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 3 3 6 11 14 17 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 13 14 19 31 30 23 32 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. -0. -10. -18. -26. -33. -36. -40. -47. -51. -53. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 5. 9. 3. -4. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 20. 22. 13. 1. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.9 79.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/07/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 35 37 40 45 47 38 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 33 36 41 43 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 28 31 36 38 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 20 23 28 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT