* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 31 35 35 40 44 40 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 31 35 35 40 44 40 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 18 20 22 21 19 19 19 20 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 51 41 39 46 49 43 37 29 28 31 33 27 29 28 32 35 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 0 1 -1 -7 -8 -5 -2 -4 -5 -6 0 3 0 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 272 268 263 268 277 264 266 247 255 290 313 318 293 266 286 312 317 SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.7 27.8 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.9 26.2 24.6 23.5 22.8 20.7 22.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 137 132 133 137 134 128 125 124 133 112 99 93 91 83 90 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 115 110 110 113 111 105 102 102 108 91 82 79 79 75 80 79 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -56.4 -57.2 -57.3 -57.6 -57.9 -57.6 -57.0 -56.6 -55.9 -54.8 -53.7 -52.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 3 2 4 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 62 60 62 62 60 57 59 58 54 49 47 48 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 4 3 4 4 9 13 12 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -77 -69 -69 -73 -31 -9 16 -15 -34 -94 -85 -110 -67 -57 -19 -25 200 MB DIV 1 7 70 56 29 38 12 42 -23 9 0 20 4 -3 20 4 -24 700-850 TADV 18 9 6 2 2 -1 -1 0 2 10 4 5 4 7 0 19 10 LAND (KM) 187 117 95 134 159 269 329 338 258 153 144 155 138 180 161 278 408 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.8 32.4 32.7 32.7 32.5 32.5 33.0 34.1 35.3 36.2 36.8 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.3 78.7 77.9 77.1 75.5 74.2 73.5 73.6 74.1 74.2 74.2 73.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 6 6 3 4 7 11 14 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 30 19 16 25 27 15 12 14 43 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 25. 25. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 1. -10. -19. -27. -35. -40. -44. -50. -55. -58. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. -1. 5. 10. 8. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 15. 20. 24. 20. 7. -1. -6. -10. -14. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.0 79.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/07/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 29 31 35 35 40 44 40 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 27 31 31 36 40 36 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 25 25 30 34 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT