* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 09/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 27 30 34 38 42 47 52 56 59 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 27 30 34 38 42 47 52 56 59 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 21 22 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 20 18 15 9 3 12 11 11 18 24 25 24 22 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 7 10 12 10 5 9 13 13 13 6 7 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 99 106 101 100 91 74 234 285 299 316 15 21 7 354 346 348 342 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.3 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 143 135 134 127 124 128 129 133 139 139 145 156 156 157 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 143 135 132 124 121 127 129 133 139 139 145 156 156 157 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 11 10 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 59 60 56 53 47 46 44 46 48 51 54 60 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -53 -55 -65 -76 -105 -101 -93 -76 -69 -71 -74 -71 -72 -51 -52 -25 200 MB DIV -44 -58 -60 -57 -42 -8 26 1 -1 -27 -2 20 11 -18 24 38 19 700-850 TADV 8 12 12 11 16 22 21 16 16 13 8 6 -1 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 500 654 802 952 1087 1352 1612 1862 1747 1450 1181 961 834 738 423 302 360 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.5 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.1 12.2 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.6 23.2 24.7 26.2 27.5 30.0 32.4 35.0 37.9 41.0 44.3 47.7 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 14 15 15 17 16 16 17 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 16 9 9 8 3 14 15 7 19 35 39 45 34 26 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 21.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 09/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -52.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 09/03/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 23 23 24 27 30 34 38 42 47 52 56 59 62 66 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 22 23 26 29 33 37 41 46 51 55 58 61 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 21 24 27 31 35 39 44 49 53 56 59 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT