* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 09/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 31 34 39 43 49 56 62 68 72 77 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 31 34 39 43 49 56 62 68 72 77 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 26 25 25 27 28 30 33 36 41 47 53 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 24 20 19 11 4 6 10 6 7 10 9 13 16 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 4 4 3 11 10 5 2 8 15 17 15 9 8 6 8 SHEAR DIR 86 96 105 107 106 83 90 252 311 298 352 48 2 360 349 356 28 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.9 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 140 136 135 128 122 126 126 130 138 135 143 148 152 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 140 136 134 125 118 124 125 130 138 135 143 148 152 154 156 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 58 58 57 52 51 45 47 42 46 47 50 53 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -53 -59 -67 -76 -105 -119 -108 -93 -78 -77 -78 -76 -72 -53 -50 -26 200 MB DIV -58 -64 -64 -44 -43 -38 -1 6 -25 -1 -19 12 23 -12 5 24 30 700-850 TADV 8 5 10 11 6 14 8 10 6 16 12 9 3 4 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 380 537 694 858 1005 1270 1517 1778 1848 1604 1322 1088 899 809 571 317 333 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.4 14.0 13.4 12.8 12.5 12.5 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 26.8 29.3 31.6 34.0 36.7 39.6 42.8 46.2 49.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 12 11 12 14 15 16 17 16 17 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 14 10 9 13 4 13 16 7 12 31 40 34 50 24 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 24. 31. 37. 43. 47. 52. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 20.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 09/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -54.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.4% 5.7% 6.7% 4.0% 1.6% 4.2% 2.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 09/02/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 27 31 34 39 43 49 56 62 68 72 77 81 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 29 32 37 41 47 54 60 66 70 75 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 26 29 34 38 44 51 57 63 67 72 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 20 23 28 32 38 45 51 57 61 66 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT