* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 19 21 24 27 30 32 35 39 41 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 19 21 24 27 30 32 35 39 41 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 21 24 22 11 11 13 11 10 13 13 13 14 14 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -4 3 0 -2 -1 -5 -2 -5 -2 -7 -5 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 106 114 114 132 150 165 142 150 183 202 217 223 227 231 238 245 260 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 117 114 112 109 109 109 111 112 112 115 115 119 125 128 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 111 107 105 102 102 102 104 104 103 105 105 109 116 121 127 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 61 60 57 56 54 55 50 49 42 39 36 40 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 53 54 48 35 6 -2 -7 -39 -44 -72 -86 -100 -96 -89 -78 200 MB DIV -22 -41 -39 -23 -25 -4 10 10 -1 -16 2 7 -14 3 -23 16 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 2 2 6 8 7 7 4 4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 919 978 1053 1131 1220 1408 1614 1841 2079 2149 2087 2031 1958 1873 1718 1465 1218 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.0 26.6 27.3 28.0 28.8 30.5 32.4 34.5 36.7 38.8 40.6 42.3 44.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 10 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 9 9 17 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 26.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/08/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 19 19 21 24 27 30 32 35 39 41 43 45 47 50 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 19 21 24 27 30 32 35 39 41 43 45 47 50 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 19 22 25 28 30 33 37 39 41 43 45 48 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT