* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 16 16 17 19 21 23 25 28 31 33 35 38 41 45 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 16 16 17 19 21 23 25 28 31 33 35 38 41 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 27 24 20 14 9 10 14 12 14 12 13 14 12 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 1 6 2 2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 98 117 128 129 136 164 174 164 185 219 219 228 229 237 239 241 237 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 117 115 112 109 108 108 110 111 112 115 114 115 120 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 111 108 105 101 100 101 102 103 102 105 103 104 109 115 115 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 63 60 56 56 55 52 51 49 45 40 38 43 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 56 59 62 61 46 27 16 5 -14 -36 -58 -82 -106 -106 -110 -97 200 MB DIV -6 -18 -34 -24 -16 0 2 17 -1 -26 -13 7 -23 -21 -1 -3 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 0 2 2 6 7 8 11 9 8 2 1 LAND (KM) 872 926 999 1089 1180 1381 1578 1784 1996 2194 2165 2102 2070 2012 1923 1772 1596 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.8 20.4 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.1 26.8 27.6 28.4 30.2 32.0 33.9 35.9 37.9 39.6 41.3 42.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 8 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 10 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 21. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 25.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/08/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 18 17 16 16 17 19 21 23 25 28 31 33 35 38 41 45 18HR AGO 20 19 18 17 17 18 20 22 24 26 29 32 34 36 39 42 46 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 15 16 18 20 22 24 27 30 32 34 37 40 44 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT