* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 25 24 25 27 29 32 34 36 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 25 24 25 27 29 32 34 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 18 17 17 16 15 15 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 21 24 27 21 21 16 8 13 17 14 19 18 25 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 -3 -1 0 1 7 9 3 4 2 -1 -4 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 90 101 124 135 158 175 208 221 206 239 248 273 289 306 308 306 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.3 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 122 118 117 111 107 109 109 111 113 114 118 119 125 127 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 118 113 112 104 101 102 102 103 105 106 110 111 116 118 119 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 66 62 57 57 56 56 56 51 48 46 46 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 55 55 50 54 57 40 43 28 8 -5 -25 -46 -69 -88 -105 -120 200 MB DIV 28 15 7 -20 -27 -26 -3 -7 -10 9 -22 -21 -8 -22 -19 22 2 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 3 6 4 4 6 2 6 10 4 7 4 LAND (KM) 830 831 876 956 1054 1269 1491 1709 1934 2152 2055 1955 1868 1809 1709 1551 1328 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.7 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.6 19.1 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.7 25.0 25.6 26.4 27.3 29.2 31.2 33.2 35.3 37.4 39.7 41.8 44.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 12 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 8 8 12 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 24.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 8.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.4% 3.9% 1.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/07/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 25 24 25 27 29 32 34 36 37 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 21 22 23 24 23 24 26 28 31 33 35 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 19 20 21 22 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT