* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 21 24 22 22 18 10 7 13 11 12 15 18 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 0 -6 -1 0 3 9 4 4 0 -1 -4 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 65 77 86 97 119 142 157 178 211 197 211 244 258 288 302 312 305 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.6 27.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 128 125 121 116 111 109 109 111 112 115 115 119 121 128 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 125 121 117 110 104 102 102 104 105 108 109 112 115 122 124 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 74 71 65 62 58 59 58 59 53 54 49 51 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 58 53 54 48 55 44 38 31 17 9 -17 -27 -55 -69 -96 -102 200 MB DIV 46 28 23 4 -14 -27 -9 -14 -9 3 2 -29 -9 -14 -12 29 22 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 0 5 3 4 0 4 1 0 2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 859 876 891 929 1003 1183 1384 1593 1809 2043 2077 1931 1803 1707 1621 1435 1222 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.4 14.2 15.7 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.6 24.9 25.4 26.0 26.8 28.5 30.3 32.2 34.2 36.4 38.5 40.9 43.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 7 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 6 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 24.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 6.7% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.3% 2.5% 1.6% 1.4% 3.0% 2.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 2.7% 2.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/07/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 39 41 43 18HR AGO 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 24 25 25 26 28 31 35 38 40 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 19 20 21 22 22 23 25 28 32 35 37 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT