* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/06/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 38 41 42 45 45 45 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 38 41 42 45 45 45 44 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 28 29 29 29 28 27 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 21 20 14 12 10 10 12 14 13 18 21 27 27 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 4 1 -1 -1 1 10 9 6 12 6 7 3 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 52 56 63 74 114 116 154 179 201 218 225 250 256 262 259 266 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.5 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 128 128 125 119 113 109 110 111 115 115 116 116 115 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 126 125 125 122 115 107 103 103 103 106 104 102 100 98 97 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 83 84 82 80 76 69 64 57 54 48 46 43 41 41 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 76 69 59 64 64 59 67 61 54 43 27 15 -16 -56 -99 -105 -109 200 MB DIV 105 99 88 70 63 41 -5 -21 -16 -7 -3 6 1 -21 -6 -18 -22 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 -1 -4 -4 -1 -2 2 1 6 6 11 13 8 0 -4 LAND (KM) 858 950 1016 1045 1080 1214 1417 1646 1880 2112 2188 2184 2247 2365 2467 2535 2502 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.7 11.4 12.1 13.6 15.1 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.3 26.0 26.5 27.1 28.7 30.7 32.8 34.9 37.0 39.0 40.7 42.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 7 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 16. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 24.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/06/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 11.4% 7.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 9.4% 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 2.6% 2.9% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 7.5% 3.6% 2.4% 0.3% 0.9% 3.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/06/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 38 41 42 45 45 45 44 44 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 34 36 36 39 40 43 43 43 42 42 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 30 32 32 35 36 39 39 39 38 38 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 25 25 28 29 32 32 32 31 31 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT