* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 08/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 32 34 39 44 49 51 54 57 60 61 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 32 34 39 44 49 51 54 57 60 61 62 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 31 34 38 42 43 44 43 42 40 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 18 18 19 12 8 2 7 10 13 13 17 20 26 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 0 1 -1 0 5 10 9 11 8 5 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 69 64 60 62 62 75 139 133 188 195 191 202 207 230 246 257 258 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 131 128 124 126 118 115 113 116 118 119 123 122 123 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 132 129 125 121 123 113 110 107 109 110 112 116 114 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 81 82 77 74 68 63 59 59 55 57 52 49 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 71 73 69 71 72 67 69 66 54 33 32 14 -2 -28 -41 200 MB DIV 100 94 63 63 78 60 16 -17 -10 -4 14 12 18 -1 8 9 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -5 -7 -6 0 -3 -2 -1 0 2 0 6 11 13 13 LAND (KM) 579 718 822 910 984 1142 1351 1580 1804 2018 1958 1868 1802 1764 1761 1813 1741 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.2 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.0 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.1 27.9 30.0 32.2 34.3 36.3 38.0 39.7 41.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 10 12 12 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 14 12 6 3 5 3 0 0 1 3 5 7 8 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 14. 19. 24. 26. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 22.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.6% 8.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 19.7% 9.1% 2.9% 2.3% 4.1% 2.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 10.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 2.4% 0.2% Consensus: 3.4% 14.6% 6.4% 3.3% 0.8% 1.8% 4.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/06/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 31 32 34 39 44 49 51 54 57 60 61 62 64 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 30 35 40 45 47 50 53 56 57 58 60 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 30 35 40 42 45 48 51 52 53 55 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 23 28 33 35 38 41 44 45 46 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT