* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 37 34 28 30 29 28 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 27 28 27 26 24 21 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 28 30 28 36 38 33 16 24 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 1 0 -1 -8 -4 -1 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 253 251 259 259 263 278 282 288 290 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.8 28.3 28.3 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 141 145 149 151 168 143 142 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 127 127 128 131 135 150 125 122 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 6 10 5 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 71 64 62 61 53 46 46 52 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 12 13 14 14 15 13 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 55 51 27 30 37 -20 -34 -84 -71 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 76 76 47 47 42 19 50 4 59 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 10 9 9 13 11 13 1 5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 272 290 319 385 445 381 239 -59 -241 -394 -484 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 8 8 12 15 15 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 19 19 22 29 16 12 5 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -0. -7. -12. -17. -19. -22. -25. -30. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 9. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.0 93.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.9% 7.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.4% 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.8% 3.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/17/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 32 33 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 28 25 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT