* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/17/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 33 38 39 41 38 35 35 34 33 31 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 33 38 39 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 27 26 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 21 26 25 23 37 26 29 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 1 3 0 -8 -3 0 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 251 257 254 256 255 278 273 289 271 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 29.5 29.7 28.5 28.2 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 139 141 143 144 161 165 146 142 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 126 128 127 127 145 148 128 125 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 8 5 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 69 64 62 57 51 49 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 11 13 12 15 13 14 13 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 43 40 27 33 -13 -26 -103 -69 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 76 74 78 47 61 47 2 8 30 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 6 4 13 17 6 -3 19 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 211 214 226 299 388 478 295 -16 -175 -375 -446 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 10 8 8 12 14 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 19 22 25 26 18 8 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -26. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 3. 4. 2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 8. 13. 14. 16. 13. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 6. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 92.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/17/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.0% 6.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.4% 2.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/17/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/17/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 33 38 39 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 30 35 36 33 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 25 30 31 28 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 20 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT