* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 26 27 31 34 37 39 40 43 46 47 48 50 50 V (KT) LAND 20 24 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 34 29 27 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 24 24 24 24 23 21 21 25 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 10 14 16 25 22 32 29 30 5 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 2 2 4 -2 0 -10 -5 2 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 308 281 266 266 240 237 239 268 265 320 272 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.6 29.5 27.7 28.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 140 142 147 145 150 163 162 136 142 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 119 122 128 131 135 132 134 145 145 121 129 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 5 8 6 9 5 10 4 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 81 79 71 61 56 48 44 48 56 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 97 103 86 77 51 32 51 0 -4 -36 23 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 84 80 71 45 70 53 65 21 42 55 95 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 9 46 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 11 16 99 167 294 305 210 107 -88 -375 -607 -632 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 5 8 9 10 10 10 12 15 18 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 12 14 22 21 15 13 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. -16. -17. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.2 94.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 31.8% 20.3% 14.8% 4.6% 15.4% 10.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 10.7% 6.9% 5.0% 1.6% 5.1% 3.5% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/16/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 34 29 27 28 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 29 24 22 23 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 23 27 30 24 19 17 18 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT