* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 26 28 32 36 40 42 40 40 39 38 37 37 39 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 25 29 33 37 41 43 41 35 29 28 30 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 22 24 25 25 29 30 30 30 30 28 25 26 26 30 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 10 13 13 14 13 24 30 30 21 17 9 18 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 3 0 3 -4 -5 10 6 3 3 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 307 317 315 283 282 271 256 269 299 331 343 347 357 15 26 39 352 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.4 28.0 26.7 25.6 26.1 22.5 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 131 131 133 139 143 145 151 146 141 125 115 119 94 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 115 115 116 119 125 132 134 141 138 131 115 105 108 86 83 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 5 7 6 8 7 8 7 6 4 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 82 82 81 79 75 68 61 60 71 73 74 72 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 96 106 111 109 128 104 90 45 46 -41 -91 -111 -67 -23 -3 46 200 MB DIV 66 90 102 71 49 89 87 55 55 24 64 43 26 23 -7 40 25 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -8 10 10 68 87 68 66 -21 51 21 LAND (KM) -11 -22 -22 -22 -22 8 76 220 354 417 114 -56 -144 -10 346 422 429 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.3 19.1 20.5 22.5 25.2 28.1 30.9 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.4 94.4 94.5 94.4 94.3 93.9 93.1 90.8 86.9 82.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 16 20 22 23 24 24 24 22 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 9 9 10 12 18 21 22 9 6 1 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 37. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. -0. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.1 94.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 19.5% 9.8% 2.7% 0.7% 6.1% 19.3% 25.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 1.3% 6.6% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2.1% 6.5% 8.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/16/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 25 25 29 33 37 41 43 41 35 29 28 30 30 31 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 22 26 30 34 38 40 38 32 26 25 27 27 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 21 25 29 33 35 33 27 21 20 22 22 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT