* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 27 30 34 38 42 43 41 41 41 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 25 30 34 37 41 42 40 40 32 34 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 26 26 26 27 27 27 25 24 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 7 9 12 13 11 11 17 36 35 15 17 11 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 1 4 4 2 5 1 -1 4 15 5 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 307 304 311 298 276 275 249 253 245 319 327 347 22 15 355 8 329 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.7 28.0 26.1 26.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 137 135 133 137 140 143 146 149 147 136 140 118 121 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 122 121 120 116 121 125 130 134 140 138 125 128 108 113 91 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 7 5 8 6 9 7 11 9 8 6 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 78 80 79 80 75 68 57 52 53 63 74 76 78 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 91 98 112 114 116 135 101 75 42 52 -37 -90 -100 -61 -20 -34 200 MB DIV 53 53 90 76 45 59 74 40 48 27 44 51 40 35 44 9 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 14 54 32 52 35 17 13 LAND (KM) 67 77 60 36 15 -9 22 95 200 296 427 201 108 -122 70 170 407 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.9 19.5 20.7 22.5 24.8 27.3 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 94.8 95.0 95.1 95.1 95.2 95.2 94.9 94.8 94.5 93.1 90.3 86.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 5 8 11 16 19 19 19 20 27 31 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 14 19 21 25 17 5 2 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 22. 23. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.2 94.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 14.2% 9.1% 5.5% 1.0% 8.2% 9.9% 22.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Consensus: 0.8% 4.7% 3.0% 1.8% 0.4% 2.7% 3.3% 7.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/16/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 25 25 30 34 37 41 42 40 40 32 34 34 37 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 23 28 32 35 39 40 38 38 30 32 32 35 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 18 23 27 30 34 35 33 33 25 27 27 30 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT