* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 27 30 34 39 42 44 47 48 50 53 55 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 32 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 17 13 11 8 11 8 9 5 8 8 9 6 12 23 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 0 -1 1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 289 297 309 300 284 276 272 258 240 204 171 178 235 329 304 310 302 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 141 142 138 133 131 128 129 128 124 130 133 132 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 126 124 126 122 119 117 114 115 116 112 117 119 117 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 8 6 7 5 7 5 9 7 11 9 16 13 20 700-500 MB RH 73 76 73 73 74 76 77 79 81 78 74 70 65 58 51 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 69 71 75 88 107 118 116 103 79 57 23 -7 -10 -15 -13 34 200 MB DIV 30 41 61 30 15 45 33 61 56 37 23 19 5 0 -27 -17 13 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 25 2 LAND (KM) 144 144 127 110 93 20 -39 -129 -172 -164 -143 -117 -88 -59 -51 25 64 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.1 18.6 17.8 17.5 17.7 18.3 19.4 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.7 94.9 95.1 95.3 95.8 96.1 96.3 96.6 96.8 97.1 97.5 98.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 5 6 7 8 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 16 16 12 9 7 7 7 6 3 6 8 7 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 33. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.9 94.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.8% 3.3% 2.0% 0.3% 2.2% 4.0% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 3.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/15/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/15/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 31 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 25 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 29 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 24 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT