* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/14/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 28 33 36 38 40 42 43 45 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 33 40 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 15 12 9 8 11 11 9 11 10 15 2 6 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 2 -2 -4 0 0 4 3 -2 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 307 286 293 299 294 294 248 259 249 214 193 159 163 230 295 301 320 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.1 27.3 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 142 142 140 133 130 131 129 129 124 126 136 139 145 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 124 126 126 125 119 117 118 115 116 112 113 120 122 125 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 8 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 14 13 17 700-500 MB RH 71 75 77 75 73 75 77 79 80 81 78 75 70 63 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 71 70 69 76 102 112 116 104 106 89 76 26 8 8 3 6 200 MB DIV 36 45 40 56 19 29 58 58 59 66 44 33 39 32 -8 0 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 0 -3 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 13 LAND (KM) 161 158 143 123 100 35 -54 -146 -155 -154 -214 -157 -75 -15 58 72 82 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.2 18.6 17.9 17.3 17.4 18.0 19.0 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.3 94.4 94.7 95.1 95.7 96.3 96.8 97.3 97.7 97.7 97.7 97.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 4 6 6 5 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 17 16 13 8 7 7 7 6 3 4 10 14 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 25. 28. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 94.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.2% 7.4% 3.6% 0.5% 4.0% 6.1% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.9% 3.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.2% 1.3% 2.0% 5.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/14/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 32 35 37 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 22 22 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 30 33 35 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 18 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 26 29 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT