* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 26 28 33 38 47 57 64 68 71 72 75 79 82 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 22 24 26 26 27 35 45 52 56 46 34 29 28 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 20 22 25 26 27 31 35 38 41 36 30 28 27 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 12 13 10 10 8 8 1 4 7 10 9 5 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 3 3 4 1 -1 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 301 311 283 294 311 315 336 284 262 267 146 172 181 193 186 39 39 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.3 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.5 28.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 134 134 129 127 129 139 164 167 163 158 142 133 134 135 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 118 119 115 114 118 127 153 155 149 146 130 120 120 118 119 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 7 6 8 5 7 5 7 5 8 6 9 6 10 6 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 73 73 74 76 77 78 78 76 74 71 66 63 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 6 7 7 10 13 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 58 66 67 72 81 84 63 71 48 39 27 23 22 17 26 200 MB DIV 23 14 26 6 33 53 34 62 67 79 48 36 27 21 29 12 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 60 39 16 -14 -67 -159 -173 -61 49 93 85 54 -38 -74 -90 -21 31 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.0 18.5 17.8 17.0 16.3 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.8 95.9 96.1 96.3 96.7 97.4 98.2 98.9 99.8 100.8 101.5 102.0 102.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 3 6 6 7 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 10 9 6 6 5 9 20 22 22 19 11 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 26. 30. 33. 37. 39. 40. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -0. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 13. 18. 27. 37. 44. 48. 51. 52. 55. 59. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.8 95.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 28.0% 24.1% 11.3% 2.4% 15.8% 19.0% 36.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 6.7% Consensus: 3.0% 9.4% 8.1% 3.8% 0.8% 5.3% 6.4% 14.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/14/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 22 24 26 26 27 35 45 52 56 46 34 29 28 32 18HR AGO 20 19 20 19 21 23 23 24 32 42 49 53 43 31 26 25 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 19 19 20 28 38 45 49 39 27 22 21 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT