* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 28 32 37 47 57 63 70 72 76 76 80 84 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 26 26 32 41 51 57 64 67 71 70 75 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 23 24 26 26 30 34 39 44 48 51 51 50 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 14 15 12 10 0 2 8 11 12 14 15 16 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 3 0 5 5 6 1 0 6 6 4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 288 288 279 292 315 346 331 123 99 108 135 128 151 134 139 108 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.2 29.7 30.4 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 130 126 125 126 126 163 171 168 162 162 165 170 169 167 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 116 113 112 115 116 153 170 157 148 148 152 160 155 151 147 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 69 72 69 71 70 70 71 70 68 69 68 65 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 9 12 12 14 14 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 46 44 62 58 72 70 68 49 47 55 45 34 37 20 31 200 MB DIV 46 13 8 21 9 41 44 27 49 46 43 22 30 16 40 34 38 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -7 -4 -10 1 -3 1 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 43 10 -41 -83 -145 -271 -127 41 159 274 331 356 349 288 257 264 299 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.0 19.7 19.2 18.3 17.4 16.6 16.1 15.9 15.9 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.6 97.1 97.5 98.0 99.2 100.4 101.8 103.1 104.5 105.2 105.6 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 5 2 2 4 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 6 4 3 4 4 20 30 25 22 22 22 23 20 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 4. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 17. 27. 37. 43. 50. 52. 56. 56. 60. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.3 96.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 15.2% 13.7% 9.2% 1.7% 9.2% 7.6% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 4.6% 3.1% 0.6% 3.1% 2.6% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/14/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 25 26 26 32 41 51 57 64 67 71 70 75 78 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 24 24 30 39 49 55 62 65 69 68 73 76 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 21 21 27 36 46 52 59 62 66 65 70 73 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT