* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 27 30 37 47 54 65 70 75 77 80 82 83 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 24 25 26 27 27 38 45 56 61 66 68 70 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 25 26 27 27 32 36 41 45 46 45 43 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 11 16 11 10 2 4 11 15 21 24 25 24 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 2 0 6 4 9 5 1 -3 -4 2 -1 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 259 272 283 271 272 300 291 11 156 120 104 102 107 109 106 107 91 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.0 28.7 30.4 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 132 130 132 127 123 146 171 169 163 162 162 163 166 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 118 116 119 115 113 136 169 161 152 150 150 153 155 156 155 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 8 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 69 68 67 64 64 62 65 67 66 67 70 70 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 10 11 15 16 18 18 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 34 45 49 40 42 66 60 62 53 44 57 51 51 30 22 20 25 200 MB DIV 19 37 13 21 19 32 15 25 37 53 49 24 28 45 57 27 21 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -3 0 -5 -8 -8 0 2 8 4 5 3 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 50 5 -49 -108 -168 -301 -162 -48 123 314 443 522 519 435 317 222 176 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.4 19.9 19.3 18.5 17.6 16.5 15.7 15.0 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.9 97.5 98.1 98.7 99.9 101.3 102.8 104.3 105.7 106.7 106.9 106.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 5 3 3 5 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 5 2 2 3 11 27 22 22 26 28 24 22 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. 0. 4. 5. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 17. 27. 34. 45. 51. 55. 57. 60. 62. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.6 96.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 7.3% 6.3% 3.3% 0.4% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 1.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/14/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 24 25 26 27 27 38 45 56 61 66 68 70 73 74 18HR AGO 20 19 19 22 23 24 25 25 36 43 54 59 64 66 68 71 72 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 21 22 22 33 40 51 56 61 63 65 68 69 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT