* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 28 29 33 40 45 49 53 55 58 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 20 22 24 26 26 27 34 39 43 46 49 52 53 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 21 24 26 26 27 31 33 35 36 35 33 32 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 9 10 13 7 1 9 11 20 24 28 24 26 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 6 3 -1 4 4 10 1 4 -2 -4 -2 1 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 262 253 266 271 263 284 273 21 160 116 101 97 99 91 96 100 102 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.7 26.8 27.7 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 134 129 128 131 121 132 171 171 164 162 163 164 167 170 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 120 115 115 118 110 123 164 163 156 150 150 154 158 164 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 66 65 70 67 66 63 62 64 64 65 65 66 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 39 49 49 44 72 67 82 65 52 69 64 56 38 18 22 11 200 MB DIV 27 22 43 25 19 22 40 41 40 59 48 49 37 62 55 34 -8 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -1 0 -11 -5 -9 5 2 6 4 2 0 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 81 42 -9 -60 -111 -233 -225 -57 71 252 411 503 530 450 315 145 15 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 19.9 19.4 18.5 17.6 16.5 15.5 14.9 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 99.1 100.4 101.9 103.4 104.8 105.9 106.5 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 8 8 6 3 1 5 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 8 6 4 2 1 5 27 24 23 27 29 25 22 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 20. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.5 96.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.4% 6.2% 1.2% 0.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 0.9% 2.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/13/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 20 22 24 26 26 27 34 39 43 46 49 52 53 57 60 18HR AGO 20 19 18 20 22 24 24 25 32 37 41 44 47 50 51 55 58 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 22 22 23 30 35 39 42 45 48 49 53 56 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT