* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 30 35 38 42 47 55 65 69 75 78 87 92 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 30 27 27 27 27 37 47 51 57 60 69 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 26 27 33 40 46 53 60 68 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 12 11 13 8 11 8 9 8 6 6 9 11 9 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 1 3 -1 0 -1 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 262 282 274 264 279 269 291 292 324 318 37 82 88 104 104 126 127 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 27.8 27.4 27.5 28.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 148 150 146 132 127 129 139 170 166 159 157 159 157 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 128 131 134 130 119 116 119 129 162 155 146 144 145 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 70 67 68 74 74 72 73 73 72 71 68 69 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 7 10 13 13 15 15 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 16 35 50 52 89 78 91 87 90 66 59 63 59 54 50 200 MB DIV 31 -1 3 0 13 37 31 57 65 36 27 43 37 49 33 38 30 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -2 0 -4 -1 -9 -4 -6 2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 150 155 158 134 96 16 -88 -205 -167 -36 100 184 258 307 305 275 262 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.1 18.8 18.3 17.7 17.1 16.7 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.7 94.9 95.1 95.4 96.1 97.0 98.1 99.5 101.0 102.5 103.9 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 6 3 3 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 16 16 13 7 4 3 9 26 28 21 20 20 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 30. 33. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 5. 6. 6. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 27. 35. 45. 49. 55. 58. 67. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.9 94.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 10.1% 6.0% 2.4% 0.6% 4.0% 5.7% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% 1.9% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/13/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 25 30 27 27 27 27 37 47 51 57 60 69 74 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 28 25 25 25 25 35 45 49 55 58 67 72 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 24 21 21 21 21 31 41 45 51 54 63 68 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT