* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 28 32 35 39 43 50 57 65 71 79 83 88 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 28 26 27 27 27 33 40 48 55 63 67 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 26 27 32 38 44 50 56 61 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 19 13 13 9 11 6 7 4 7 18 17 17 16 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 2 3 0 4 4 6 4 -2 0 2 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 243 254 273 269 265 283 264 270 282 359 39 88 82 85 83 104 108 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.9 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 147 142 130 126 129 135 169 168 157 155 157 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 129 129 130 126 116 114 119 125 159 159 145 140 144 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 10 7 9 6 7 5 7 6 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 69 69 69 73 76 76 74 75 72 72 71 73 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 10 14 17 22 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 24 18 37 70 75 88 106 99 84 69 59 56 58 36 22 200 MB DIV 58 24 15 -1 -13 28 33 47 67 63 47 41 51 61 56 30 52 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -2 5 4 2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 161 176 160 138 106 20 -63 -173 -210 -57 89 202 298 349 316 234 123 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.2 18.6 17.8 17.2 16.4 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.6 96.3 97.1 98.0 99.2 100.8 102.3 103.7 104.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 3 4 4 4 6 8 8 8 7 4 1 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 17 16 12 6 4 2 6 24 29 22 22 20 22 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 14. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 23. 30. 37. 45. 51. 59. 63. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 94.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.1% 7.8% 3.0% 0.7% 3.5% 3.0% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% Consensus: 1.0% 4.1% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.2% 1.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/13/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 25 28 26 27 27 27 33 40 48 55 63 67 72 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 26 24 25 25 25 31 38 46 53 61 65 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 22 20 21 21 21 27 34 42 49 57 61 66 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT