* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 06/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 27 32 36 40 42 48 53 62 67 73 76 78 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 34 43 49 55 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 26 27 27 32 38 44 49 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 21 18 17 17 7 10 8 5 5 7 13 17 18 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 3 0 3 0 9 1 1 0 2 1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 240 241 248 258 257 272 260 241 251 280 201 73 95 94 91 85 103 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.8 29.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 147 147 141 131 132 128 121 151 165 160 158 156 155 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 132 130 130 126 117 118 116 111 140 155 150 146 141 141 145 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 71 70 68 67 72 75 74 73 66 66 64 66 70 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 8 9 9 13 15 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 23 15 11 43 68 85 84 103 93 80 62 70 76 63 49 200 MB DIV 52 57 33 15 3 36 12 30 51 27 31 24 35 38 35 38 39 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 0 0 -5 0 -8 -4 -15 1 1 7 5 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 161 176 171 146 110 18 -78 -171 -298 -140 -22 123 262 377 443 433 359 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.5 20.4 20.2 19.8 19.0 18.2 17.4 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.7 95.0 95.4 95.8 96.7 97.7 98.6 99.8 101.2 102.7 104.0 105.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 7 8 8 7 6 4 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 18 16 11 6 3 2 2 15 27 20 20 22 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 1. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 28. 33. 42. 47. 53. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 94.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 06/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.6% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.9% 3.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 06/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 06/12/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 34 43 49 55 57 60 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 25 24 24 25 25 25 32 41 47 53 55 58 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 21 20 20 21 21 21 28 37 43 49 51 54 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT