* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 34 36 42 47 53 57 63 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 34 36 42 47 53 57 63 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 9 12 12 11 11 6 12 10 11 12 24 28 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 4 6 9 9 8 7 3 0 3 2 0 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 187 198 193 219 224 254 233 219 243 226 263 262 262 289 319 334 349 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.5 28.7 29.8 30.1 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 158 159 161 164 165 160 157 151 150 153 144 148 168 174 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 158 159 161 164 165 158 154 148 148 152 144 148 168 174 174 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 54 53 48 46 42 42 39 40 41 43 42 46 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 36 39 44 30 27 21 18 -6 -30 -36 -39 -41 -16 -15 3 200 MB DIV 2 16 6 -11 -15 -29 -22 -21 -29 1 -16 -26 -16 -17 -20 -23 -36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 3 2 5 4 5 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1203 1186 1172 1159 1123 1077 1005 947 948 975 995 992 918 798 709 432 127 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.6 9.4 10.4 11.4 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.1 39.0 39.8 40.5 41.8 42.9 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.9 46.2 48.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 5 7 9 11 14 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 19 20 22 31 39 38 34 28 25 27 23 31 60 51 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 34. 40. 45. 47. 49. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -13. -15. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 9. 11. 17. 22. 28. 32. 38. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.5 37.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.90 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.7% 9.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 20.0% 17.8% 7.9% 2.2% 4.4% 2.2% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 12.1% 9.3% 5.4% 0.7% 1.5% 4.1% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 34 36 42 47 53 57 63 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 24 27 31 33 35 41 46 52 56 62 67 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 25 29 31 33 39 44 50 54 60 65 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 19 23 25 27 33 38 44 48 54 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT