* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 40 46 52 56 60 65 69 72 72 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 33 40 46 52 56 60 65 69 72 72 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 40 40 39 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 9 7 7 12 20 23 16 15 10 17 21 31 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 4 0 2 6 5 -2 -8 -6 -2 4 2 3 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 114 111 125 120 140 173 121 130 118 112 155 215 230 245 256 277 290 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 155 155 154 154 153 152 148 143 142 142 142 139 151 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 157 156 155 152 149 154 152 150 148 143 142 142 142 139 151 174 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 58 55 54 53 56 55 55 50 49 44 43 42 45 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 52 73 93 99 65 29 22 10 -16 -42 -32 -23 -17 -17 10 200 MB DIV 62 29 33 31 25 9 -18 25 6 -17 -30 6 -5 1 23 2 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 1 6 10 5 8 3 1 LAND (KM) 1280 1227 1193 1174 1172 1189 1230 1342 1461 1558 1620 1617 1422 1233 988 811 648 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.3 8.0 9.0 10.2 11.3 12.2 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.1 34.9 35.4 35.8 36.1 36.2 35.7 34.8 34.4 35.0 36.7 39.0 41.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 4 4 2 1 5 5 6 9 11 13 14 16 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 39 35 31 30 35 39 34 26 28 24 14 14 20 34 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 43. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 35. 40. 44. 47. 47. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.0 34.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.9% 8.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 16.9% 10.7% 3.8% 1.2% 5.2% 7.8% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 2.4% 10.6% 6.7% 3.6% 0.4% 1.8% 6.4% 6.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 29 33 40 46 52 56 60 65 69 72 72 73 74 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 32 39 45 51 55 59 64 68 71 71 72 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 36 42 48 52 56 61 65 68 68 69 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 28 34 40 44 48 53 57 60 60 61 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT