* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 31 37 43 47 50 52 55 58 62 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 31 37 43 47 50 52 55 58 62 65 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 43 46 49 55 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 20 18 17 18 18 19 12 17 16 16 10 5 7 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -3 -4 -7 -5 1 1 -9 -4 SHEAR DIR 92 93 95 103 98 103 117 110 87 62 74 99 148 129 79 95 109 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 136 136 133 130 130 133 134 131 126 127 128 126 131 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 130 131 132 126 120 120 125 126 122 117 120 122 119 125 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 63 65 68 70 70 73 73 78 74 71 66 67 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 67 65 58 62 62 68 64 48 36 34 33 15 5 14 27 16 200 MB DIV 26 15 20 38 30 30 63 102 75 28 -12 -34 -20 3 6 31 3 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 -2 -1 0 -2 3 1 0 0 2 2 6 4 5 LAND (KM) 1721 1697 1671 1608 1551 1470 1431 1423 1439 1498 1576 1626 1586 1496 1375 1241 1121 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.9 13.7 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.0 37.7 38.4 39.1 39.9 41.3 42.1 42.1 41.4 40.6 40.0 40.1 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 5 2 2 5 4 3 4 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 15 19 19 13 13 22 23 16 9 8 7 6 17 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 37.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.0% 10.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 6.0% 4.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 2.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/04/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 31 37 43 47 50 52 55 58 62 65 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 29 35 41 45 48 50 53 56 60 63 66 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 26 32 38 42 45 47 50 53 57 60 63 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 32 36 39 41 44 47 51 54 57 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT