* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 05/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 34 33 36 38 44 52 42 41 44 30 28 32 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 29 28 28 29 33 37 41 32 31 33 20 18 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 29 28 28 29 30 38 41 43 45 45 42 41 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 13 14 19 24 29 12 8 4 12 14 13 16 17 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 6 5 2 1 -3 3 -1 -2 -6 -7 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 210 197 182 175 168 187 230 249 328 4 64 127 180 209 236 239 259 SST (C) 25.5 25.8 24.8 23.7 21.6 17.3 11.3 7.8 4.5 2.1 5.8 13.4 15.0 14.8 13.0 6.5 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 109 112 105 98 88 76 71 69 68 67 65 66 66 66 66 64 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 97 93 88 80 72 69 68 68 N/A 64 62 62 62 63 63 65 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 -55.9 -56.4 -56.7 -57.0 -57.2 -57.5 -57.5 -57.5 -57.9 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 63 60 61 62 59 60 56 51 46 46 43 42 44 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 9 7 4 7 9 14 19 12 12 15 6 3 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -11 -25 -47 -36 -25 -67 -76 -109 -124 -149 -153 -144 -172 -189 -203 200 MB DIV 19 15 49 49 10 33 15 11 -7 -6 -22 -25 -31 5 7 33 8 700-850 TADV 25 16 22 32 38 47 10 34 -16 2 -6 5 0 5 8 15 6 LAND (KM) 130 109 9 -87 -204 -220 -139 1 78 280 718 956 1021 959 826 740 821 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.5 32.7 34.2 35.9 39.8 43.1 45.6 46.9 47.4 46.7 45.5 44.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.1 79.9 79.8 79.6 79.3 77.3 72.5 65.1 57.0 49.1 43.4 40.7 40.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 14 16 19 22 28 29 28 24 16 8 5 5 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -2. -5. -4. -2. 3. 9. -1. -2. 1. -11. -14. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 6. 8. 14. 22. 12. 11. 14. 0. -2. 2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.6 80.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 05/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 05/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 05/27/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 29 28 28 29 33 37 41 32 31 33 20 18 21 20 18HR AGO 30 29 31 26 25 25 26 30 34 38 29 28 30 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 21 20 20 21 25 29 33 24 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 20 24 28 32 23 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT