* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 05/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 32 29 27 25 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 26 26 27 29 30 33 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 27 29 30 33 34 37 40 39 36 33 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 20 19 21 27 31 32 32 32 39 53 50 39 29 23 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 1 5 0 0 5 0 -1 -5 -9 -5 -1 -2 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 190 183 195 189 170 180 200 229 266 306 338 359 12 31 37 42 61 SST (C) 25.4 25.0 25.1 24.9 24.8 19.9 17.0 11.8 6.0 1.0 9.3 12.5 14.7 16.4 18.4 18.7 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 109 105 106 105 105 82 76 72 71 70 70 69 70 73 77 77 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 92 93 93 93 76 72 70 70 N/A 69 66 66 69 72 71 72 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.7 -55.9 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -56.2 -57.0 -57.2 -57.5 -57.7 -58.0 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 3 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 62 64 65 63 70 74 70 68 67 62 47 44 41 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 11 11 8 5 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 17 30 3 2 14 -23 1 23 26 73 38 -32 -80 -72 -49 -63 -78 200 MB DIV 41 79 46 22 54 38 60 19 29 -5 -16 -22 -54 -53 -16 -30 -21 700-850 TADV 28 27 25 29 36 37 34 -20 64 -27 64 72 19 4 0 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 16 49 9 -43 -183 -424 -414 -300 74 89 807 1326 1574 1592 1525 1454 1397 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.7 31.7 32.9 34.3 37.8 41.8 45.5 48.2 49.2 48.8 47.5 44.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 80.9 78.9 72.9 63.3 52.2 42.0 35.1 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 15 20 24 32 37 36 29 19 15 18 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -9. -16. -24. -33. -43. -53. -58. -58. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -9. -8. -8. -7. -9. -8. -9. -10. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -8. -14. -23. -32. -40. -37. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.6 81.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 05/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.4% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 05/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 05/26/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 26 26 27 29 30 33 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 23 23 24 26 27 30 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 18 18 19 21 22 25 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 18 19 22 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT