* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 39 43 45 43 41 42 42 45 44 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 39 43 45 43 41 42 42 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 40 39 36 34 33 31 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 12 11 12 16 23 26 35 24 16 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 3 3 0 -1 4 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 217 228 232 219 205 222 207 208 216 210 220 222 128 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.7 27.1 27.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 115 115 116 118 121 120 126 136 149 146 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 103 103 104 107 108 108 113 123 133 128 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 57 52 45 41 41 42 43 41 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 17 17 19 18 15 14 15 14 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 55 51 35 34 41 44 32 19 5 13 -8 -31 -69 200 MB DIV 29 30 40 29 31 27 23 2 12 2 -16 -30 -12 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 4 3 8 8 11 13 7 10 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1586 1636 1687 1734 1782 1889 2010 2108 2232 2418 2301 2042 1800 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 4 5 4 4 3 7 13 18 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -5. -4. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 13. 15. 13. 11. 12. 12. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.8 32.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.3% 12.7% 8.9% 8.5% 9.7% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 12.4% 7.0% 1.9% 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 10.5% 6.8% 3.7% 3.1% 4.0% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/03/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 39 43 45 43 41 42 42 45 44 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 36 40 42 40 38 39 39 42 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 34 36 34 32 33 33 36 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 27 25 23 24 24 27 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT