* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 09/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 48 57 63 64 62 57 50 43 39 40 47 50 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 48 57 63 64 62 57 50 43 39 40 47 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 35 37 42 47 49 48 45 40 34 28 24 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 5 8 6 9 9 17 26 37 43 40 29 4 6 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 11 8 6 10 14 20 18 15 14 4 -6 -1 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 330 180 235 198 170 153 125 191 201 214 227 234 244 233 215 126 212 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 145 145 146 141 138 136 135 133 134 136 135 134 132 127 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 145 145 146 141 138 135 134 129 129 129 126 120 117 112 99 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 3 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 63 63 60 57 57 54 49 47 40 38 37 40 36 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 23 24 23 21 19 17 15 13 14 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 42 49 65 71 72 64 71 79 103 88 63 32 0 -73 14 94 127 200 MB DIV 146 163 177 115 98 113 101 95 74 62 29 28 15 7 32 26 45 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -11 -9 -8 -6 4 7 14 21 25 21 10 -2 5 -24 -55 LAND (KM) 929 998 1074 1154 1237 1441 1617 1779 1964 2012 2088 2208 2385 2454 2237 1986 1711 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 14 13 14 15 14 11 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 18 19 19 11 10 11 16 13 15 17 25 24 13 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 2. -3. -8. -11. -11. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -12. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 27. 33. 34. 32. 27. 20. 13. 9. 10. 17. 20. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.1 24.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 139.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.79 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 35.8% 25.5% 9.8% 7.2% 18.9% 25.0% 23.6% Logistic: 21.5% 49.0% 34.3% 22.6% 8.1% 9.7% 4.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 3.3% 3.4% 4.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 10.2% 29.4% 21.4% 11.0% 5.2% 9.8% 10.0% 8.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 8.0% 20.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 42 48 57 63 64 62 57 50 43 39 40 47 50 49 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 44 53 59 60 58 53 46 39 35 36 43 46 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 45 51 52 50 45 38 31 27 28 35 38 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 35 41 42 40 35 28 21 17 18 25 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT