* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 09/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 65 75 78 82 78 68 60 60 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 65 75 78 82 78 68 60 60 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 52 63 73 79 79 71 61 51 43 36 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 4 2 9 7 7 7 12 29 38 41 43 39 28 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 6 9 9 0 6 12 20 24 13 10 -4 -6 -6 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 335 349 332 309 24 73 93 91 150 176 212 233 233 231 246 239 285 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 151 147 144 146 140 142 135 137 133 135 137 135 135 135 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 151 147 144 146 140 142 135 137 131 129 128 125 122 119 114 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.6 -54.9 -53.4 -54.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.5 -55.4 -56.3 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 73 68 68 66 68 67 61 62 62 56 52 47 40 37 37 32 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 22 26 24 25 24 20 18 20 18 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 32 46 48 53 46 51 66 72 65 48 35 0 -23 -60 -70 200 MB DIV 150 161 215 197 141 64 78 73 51 83 50 -3 4 2 -20 -33 -17 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -9 -7 -6 1 2 7 13 14 16 11 3 0 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 861 913 971 1038 1111 1323 1523 1676 1813 1970 1997 2067 2159 2330 2390 2120 1873 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 12 11 12 13 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 29 24 21 21 12 11 13 18 13 20 21 18 24 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 9. 4. -1. -6. -10. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 5. 7. 5. -2. -5. -3. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 35. 45. 48. 52. 48. 38. 30. 30. 26. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.2 22.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 172.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.94 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 46.7% 29.9% 11.3% 7.8% 23.7% 28.3% 43.0% Logistic: 27.1% 74.9% 53.0% 33.5% 17.6% 26.6% 28.4% 14.4% Bayesian: 11.3% 18.6% 14.0% 4.1% 1.2% 6.6% 6.5% 4.0% Consensus: 15.0% 46.7% 32.3% 16.3% 8.8% 18.9% 21.1% 20.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 24.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 11.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 47 53 65 75 78 82 78 68 60 60 56 57 59 60 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 59 69 72 76 72 62 54 54 50 51 53 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 50 60 63 67 63 53 45 45 41 42 44 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 38 48 51 55 51 41 33 33 29 30 32 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT