* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 09/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 51 60 68 74 78 78 74 70 65 66 66 67 66 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 51 60 68 74 78 78 74 70 65 66 66 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 48 56 65 71 72 69 61 54 47 40 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 4 2 3 10 9 7 7 14 19 30 39 41 37 40 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 4 11 9 4 5 12 16 14 13 12 1 -7 -5 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 323 347 52 271 354 90 103 109 146 155 196 222 231 228 240 233 226 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.4 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 153 149 147 147 141 143 137 138 137 132 137 135 134 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 153 149 147 147 141 143 137 136 134 128 131 124 121 120 120 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -54.5 -55.2 -55.6 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 66 65 64 66 63 59 59 59 57 54 42 37 37 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 19 19 21 22 22 23 20 20 18 19 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 35 40 39 37 50 55 54 64 75 80 56 50 36 19 -73 -66 -40 200 MB DIV 174 178 192 200 184 66 63 51 68 72 66 34 24 -10 4 10 -6 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -8 -7 -7 -2 1 5 8 14 17 13 6 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 812 861 918 974 1035 1249 1450 1626 1770 1897 1960 1990 2032 2135 2290 2289 2216 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 25 29 27 24 23 15 12 11 19 19 13 23 18 15 23 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 3. 1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 38. 44. 48. 49. 44. 40. 35. 36. 36. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.0 22.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 185.6 -29.7 to 185.9 1.00 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 44.6% 28.9% 10.2% 7.6% 22.9% 27.4% 35.1% Logistic: 18.8% 59.9% 33.9% 19.6% 8.1% 18.5% 17.0% 7.7% Bayesian: 19.1% 20.9% 13.0% 3.7% 1.2% 5.3% 1.9% 2.7% Consensus: 14.7% 41.8% 25.3% 11.2% 5.6% 15.6% 15.5% 15.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 26.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 46 51 60 68 74 78 78 74 70 65 66 66 67 66 18HR AGO 30 29 35 40 45 54 62 68 72 72 68 64 59 60 60 61 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 45 53 59 63 63 59 55 50 51 51 52 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 42 48 52 52 48 44 39 40 40 41 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT