* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902021 09/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 37 40 48 59 67 70 72 70 64 63 66 69 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 37 40 48 59 67 70 72 70 64 63 66 69 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 49 51 50 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 8 8 5 3 1 7 4 5 9 13 22 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 4 12 11 5 13 16 16 17 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 298 343 16 293 131 116 137 195 189 214 234 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 151 152 151 144 146 140 140 135 137 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 151 152 151 144 146 140 140 134 135 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -55.0 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 67 65 67 63 60 60 61 59 59 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 17 18 18 21 22 22 21 20 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 37 36 33 55 54 45 53 62 46 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 179 182 199 207 224 110 53 31 26 26 63 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -6 -9 -9 -6 -1 2 10 13 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 770 819 876 905 940 1078 1272 1455 1646 1839 1952 1988 2081 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 6.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 26 28 27 20 22 12 11 13 18 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 15. 23. 34. 42. 45. 47. 45. 39. 38. 41. 44. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 6.8 21.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902021 INVEST 09/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 198.2 -29.7 to 185.9 1.00 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 24.4% 12.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 45.9% 20.3% 10.3% 3.7% 9.0% 10.6% 8.5% Bayesian: 15.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% Consensus: 9.8% 24.5% 11.6% 6.3% 1.3% 3.2% 11.2% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902021 INVEST 09/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 37 40 48 59 67 70 72 70 64 63 66 69 72 74 18HR AGO 25 24 28 34 37 45 56 64 67 69 67 61 60 63 66 69 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 30 38 49 57 60 62 60 54 53 56 59 62 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 37 45 48 50 48 42 41 44 47 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT